Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
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The sixth vital sign: what reproduction tells us about overall health. Proceedings from a NICHD/CDC workshop.
Cedars MI , Taymans SE , DePaolo LV , Warner L , Moss SB , Eisenberg ML . Hum Reprod Open 2017 2017 (2) hox008 STUDY QUESTION: Does the fertility status of an individual act as a biomarker for their future health? SUMMARY ANSWER: Data support an association between reproductive health and overall health for men and women. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN: Various chronic conditions, such as diabetes, obesity and cancer, can compromise fertility, but there are limited data for the converse situation, in which fertility status can influence or act as a marker for future health. Data reveal an association between infertility and incident cardiovascular disease and cancer in both men and women. STUDY DESIGN SIZE AND DURATION: A National Institute of Child Health and Human Development-Centers for Disease Control and Prevention workshop in April 2016 was convened that brought together experts in both somatic diseases and conditions, and reproductive health. Goals of the workshop included obtaining information about the current state of the science linking fertility status and overall health, identifying potential gaps and barriers limiting progress in the field, and outlining the highest priorities to move the field forward. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING AND METHODS: Approximately 40 experts participated in the workshop. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: While the etiology remains uncertain for infertility, there is evidence for an association between male and female infertility and later health. The current body of evidence suggests four main categories for considering biological explanations: genetic factors, hormonal factors, in utero factors, and lifestyle/health factors. These categories would be key to include in future studies to develop a comprehensive and possibly standardized look at fertility status and overall health. Several themes emerged from the group discussion including strategies for maximizing use of existing resources and databases, the need for additional epidemiologic studies and public health surveillance, development of strategies to frame research so results could ultimately influence clinical practice, and the identification of short and long-term goals and the best means to achieve them. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION: Further research may not indicate an association between fertility status and overall health. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Currently medical care is compartmentalized. Reproductive medicine physicians treat patients for a short period of time before they transition to others for future care. Going forward, it is critical to take an interdisciplinary patient care approach that would involve experts in a broad range of medical specialties in order to more fully understand the complex interrelationships between fertility and overall health. If infertility is confirmed as an early marker of chronic disease then screening practices could be adjusted, as they are for patients with a family history of malignancy. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: Funding for the workshop was provided by the Fertility and Infertility Branch, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health and the Division of Reproductive Health, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control. There are no conflicts of interest to declare. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the National Institutes of Health. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable. |
Noise exposure and hearing loss among workers at a hammer forge company
Brueck SE , Eisenberg J , Zechmann EL , Murphy WJ , Krieg E , Morata TC . Semin Hear 2023 44 (4) 485-502 The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) evaluated continuous and impact noise exposures and hearing loss among workers at a hammer forge company. Full-shift personal noise exposure measurements were collected on forge workers across 15 different job titles; impact noise characteristics and one-third octave band noise levels were assessed at the forge hammers; and 4,750 historic audiometric test records for 483 workers were evaluated for hearing loss trends. Nearly all workers' noise exposures exceeded regulatory and/or recommended exposure limits. Workers working in jobs at or near the hammers had full-shift time-weighted average noise exposures above 100 decibels, A-weighted. Impact noise at the hammers reached up to 148 decibels. Analysis of audiometric test records showed that 82% of workers had experienced a significant threshold shift, as defined by NIOSH, and 63% had experienced a standard threshold shift, as defined by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). All workers with an OSHA standard threshold shift had a preceding NIOSH significant threshold shift which occurred, on average, about 7 years prior. This evaluation highlights forge workers' exposures to high levels of noise, including impact noise, and how their hearing worsened with age and length of employment. © 2023. Thieme. All rights reserved. Thieme Medical Publishers, Inc. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Clinical Trends Among U.S. Adults Hospitalized with COVID-19, March-December 2020 (preprint)
Garg S , Patel K , Pham H , Whitaker M , O'Halloran A , Milucky J , Anglin O , Kirley PD , Reingold A , Kawasaki B , Herlihy R , Yousey-Hindes K , Maslar A , Anderson EJ , Openo KP , Weigel A , Teno K , Ryan PA , Monroe ML , Reeg L , Kim S , Como-Sabetti K , Bye E , Shrum Davis S , Eisenberg N , Muse A , Barney G , Bennett NM , Felsen CB , Billing L , Shiltz J , Sutton M , Abdullah N , Talbot HK , Schaffner W , Hill M , Chatelain R , Wortham J , Taylor C , Hall A , Fry AM , Kim L , Havers FP . medRxiv 2021 2021.04.21.21255473 Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial morbidity and mortality.Objectives To describe monthly demographic and clinical trends among adults hospitalized with COVID-19.Design Pooled cross-sectional.Setting 99 counties within 14 states participating in the Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET).Patients U.S. adults (aged ≥18 years) hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during March 1-December 31, 2020.Measurements Monthly trends in weighted percentages of interventions and outcomes including length of stay (LOS), intensive care unit admissions (ICU), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), vasopressor use and in-hospital death (death). Monthly hospitalization, ICU and death rates per 100,000 population.Results Among 116,743 hospitalized adults, median age was 62 years. Among 18,508 sampled adults, median LOS decreased from 6.4 (March) to 4.6 days (December). Remdesivir and systemic corticosteroid use increased from 1.7% and 18.9% (March) to 53.8% and 74.2% (December), respectively. Frequency of ICU decreased from 37.8% (March) to 20.5% (December). IMV (27.8% to 8.7%), vasopressors (22.7% to 8.8%) and deaths (13.9% to 8.7%) decreased from March to October; however, percentages of these interventions and outcomes remained stable or increased in November and December. Percentage of deaths significantly decreased over time for non-Hispanic White patients (p-value <0.01) but not non-Hispanic Black or Hispanic patients. Rates of hospitalization (105.3 per 100,000), ICU (20.2) and death (11.7) were highest during December.Limitations COVID-NET covers approximately 10% of the U.S. population; findings may not be generalizable to the entire country.Conclusions After initial improvement during April-October 2020, trends in interventions and outcomes worsened during November-December, corresponding with the 3rd peak of the U.S. pandemic. These data provide a longitudinal assessment of trends in COVID-19-associated outcomes prior to widespread COVID-19 vaccine implementation.Competing Interest StatementDr. Evan Anderson reports grants from Pfizer, grants from Merck, grants from PaxVax, grants from Micron, grants from Sanofi-Pasteur, grants from Janssen, grants from MedImmune, grants from GSK, personal fees from Sanofi-Pasteur, personal fees from Pfizer, personal fees from Medscape, personal fees from Kentucky Bioprocessing, Inc, personal fees from Sanofi-Pasteur, outside the submitted work. Dr. William Schaffner reports personal fees from VBI Vaccines, outside the submitted work. Funding StatementThis work was supported by the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention through an Emerging Infections Program cooperative agreement (grant CK17-1701) and through a Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists cooperative agreement (grant NU38OT000297-02-00).Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy. Sites participating in COVID-NET obtained approval from their respective state and local Institutional Review Boards, as applicable.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting check ist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesPublicly available data referred to in this analysis can be found at: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/covid19_3.html |
Immunologic and epidemiologic drivers of norovirus transmission in daycare and school outbreaks (preprint)
Havumaki J , Eisenberg JNS , Mattison CP , Lopman BA , Ortega-Sanchez IR , Hall AJ , Hutton DW , Eisenberg MC . medRxiv 2019 2019.12.19.19015396 Background Norovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms.Methods We explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted ‘immunity’), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data.Results Recreating the low attack rates observed in daycare and school outbreaks required a model with immunity. However, immunity alone resulted in shorter duration outbreaks than what was observed. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data.Conclusions The epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. Interventions should leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion to improve venue-level control measures.Competing Interest StatementDr. Lopman reports personal fees from Takeda Pharmaceuticals, CDC Foundation, and Hall Booth Smith, P.C. outside the submitted work.Funding StatementThis Study was funded by the Joint Initiative for Vaccine Economics, Phase 5, a cooperative agreement between the University of Michigan and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U01IP000965). Additionally, this study was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U01GM110712). Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThe surveillance datasets are available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention upon request and application. Computing code available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. |
Modeling cholera transmission and vaccination in a refugee camp (preprint)
Havumaki J , Meza R , Phares CR , Date K , Eisenberg MC . bioRxiv 2019 514406 Background Cholera remains a major public health concern, particularly in refugee camps, which may contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest long-standing refugee camp in Thailand, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign, we developed a mathematical model of cholera in Maela.Methodology/Principal Findings We formulated a Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered-based cholera transmission model and estimated parameters using incidence data from 2010. We next evaluated the reduction in cases conferred by several immunization strategies, varying timing, effectiveness, and resources (i.e., vaccine availability). Finally, we generated post-campaign case forecasts, to determine whether a booster campaign was needed. Using parameters from our calibrated model, our analyses suggest that preexposure vaccination can substantially reduce the risk of cholera even when the < 50% of the population is given the full two-dose series. Additionally, the preferred number of doses per person should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and vaccine availability. For reactive vaccination, a trade-off between timing and effectiveness was revealed, indicating that it may be beneficial to give one dose to more people rather than two doses to fewer people, which would incur a delay in administration of the second dose. Forecasting using realistic coverage levels indicated that there was no need for a booster campaign in 2014.Conclusions/Significance Our analyses suggest that vaccination in conjunction with water sanitation and hygiene improvements provides an effective strategy for cholera outbreaks in refugee camps. Effective preexposure vaccination depends on timing and effectiveness. If a camp is facing an ongoing outbreak, delayed distribution of vaccines can substantially alter the effectiveness of reactive vaccination, suggesting that quick distribution of vaccines may be more important than ensuring every individual receives both vaccine doses.Author summary We developed an age-structured Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered (SIWR)-based transmission model to consider different cholera vaccination strategies in Maela, the largest long-standing refugee camp in Thailand. Our model was fit to cholera incidence data from 2010 and was in part parameterized by demographic data collected from the camp. We considered multiple scenarios, including both a theoretical exploration of the effects of variation in timing, effectiveness and supply, as well as the real-world coverage of vaccine in Maela. The preferred number of doses per person and timing of vaccination campaigns should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and logistical constraints. Importantly, our analysis coincided with an actual cholera vaccination campaign in the camp and was used to evaluate the campaign and to help determine that there was no need for a follow-up booster campaign. The setting of our analysis is particularly relevant given the recent worldwide increase in total numbers of refugees. Results from our model highlight the utility of vaccination to prevent cholera. Vaccination campaigns can be combined with more permanent water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure improvements to reduce the risk of cholera and other enteric disease epidemics. Overall, this study demonstrates that mathematical modeling can generate useful insights into real-world policy decisions. |
Trends in the diagnosed prevalence and incidence of major eye diseases in Medicare Part B fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 68 years or older
Ehrlich JR , Andes LJ , Eisenberg A , Saaddine J , Lundeen EA . Ophthalmology 2023 130 (12) 1240-1247 PURPOSE: To study contemporary trends in the diagnosed prevalence and incidence of age-related eye diseases among Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries. DESIGN: Analysis of Medicare administrative claims data. PARTICIPANTS: Medicare FFS beneficiaries aged 68 and older from 2005-2020. Those included were continuously enrolled in both Part A and Part B for 3 years, including the index year and 2-year lookback period. METHODS: Annual cross-sectional diagnosed prevalence and incidence rates were calculated. Age-standardization was performed using the direct standardization method to account for changes in the age-structure of the study population. Rates stratified by demographics (age, sex, race, and ethnicity) were also calculated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual prevalence and incidence of diagnosed age-related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR) (among those with diabetes), and glaucoma. RESULTS: At baseline, in 2005, 60% of included beneficiaries were female, 20% were aged ≥85, 86% were non-Hispanic White, and one-quarter had diabetes. From 2005-2019, the prevalence of a diagnosis of any of the conditions studied increased from 15.0% (N=3,312,812) to 17.9% (N=3,731,281). Diagnosed incidence decreased over this period from 4.7% (N=917,846) in 2005 to 4.2% in 2019 (N=757,696). The diagnosed prevalence of AMD increased from 6.8% (N=1,504,770) to 9.4% (N=1,965,176); the diagnosed prevalence of any DR among those with diabetes decreased from 9.3% (N= 504,135) to 9.0% (N=532,859), though the diagnosed prevalence of vision-threatening DR increased from 2.0% to 3.4%; and the diagnosed prevalence of any diagnosed glaucoma decreased from 8.8% (N= 1,951,141) to 8.1% (N= 1,692,837). In 2020, the diagnosed prevalence and incidence of all diagnoses decreased. During the study period we detected demographic differences in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosis of each condition. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents updated data on the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed major chronic, age-related eye diseases among Medicare FFS beneficiaries. Compared to older epidemiological estimates, we found that the diagnosed prevalence of each condition studied was higher in more recent years. These findings may inform public health and policy planning and resource allocation to address the eye health of an increasingly older US population. |
Longitudinal and Quantitative Fecal Shedding Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, Pepper Mild Mottle Virus and CrAssphage (preprint)
Arts PJ , Kelly JD , Midgley CM , Anglin K , Lu S , Abedi GR , Andino R , Bakker KM , Banman B , Boehm AB , Briggs-Hagen M , Brouwer AF , Davidson MC , Eisenberg MC , Garcia-Knight M , Knight S , Peluso MJ , Pineda-Ramirez J , Sanchez RD , Saydah S , Tassetto M , Martin JN , Wigginton KR . medRxiv 2023 07 e0013223 Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic as a scalable and broadly applicable method for community-level monitoring of infectious disease burden, though the lack of high-quality, longitudinal fecal shedding data of SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses limits the interpretation and applicability of wastewater measurements. In this study, we present longitudinal, quantitative fecal shedding data for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, as well as the commonly used fecal indicators Pepper Mild Mottle Virus (PMMoV) RNA and crAss-like phage (crAssphage) DNA. The shedding trajectories from 48 SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals suggest a highly individualized, dynamic course of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fecal shedding, with individual measurements varying from below limit of detection to 2.79x106 gene copies/mg - dry mass of stool (gc/mg-dw). Of individuals that contributed at least 3 samples covering a range of at least 15 of the first 30 days after initial acute symptom onset, 77.4% had at least one positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA stool sample measurement. We detected PMMoV RNA in at least one sample from all individuals and in 96% (352/367) of samples overall; and measured crAssphage DNA above detection limits in 80% (38/48) of individuals and 48% (179/371) of samples. Median shedding values for PMMoV and crAssphage nucleic acids were 1x105 gc/mg-dw and 1.86x103 gc/mgdw, respectively. These results can be used to inform and build mechanistic models to significantly broaden the potential of WBE modeling and to provide more accurate insight into SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license. |
Longitudinal and quantitative fecal shedding dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, pepper mild mottle virus, and crAssphage
Arts PJ , Kelly JD , Midgley CM , Anglin K , Lu S , Abedi GR , Andino R , Bakker KM , Banman B , Boehm AB , Briggs-Hagen M , Brouwer AF , Davidson MC , Eisenberg MC , Garcia-Knight M , Knight S , Peluso MJ , Pineda-Ramirez J , Diaz Sanchez R , Saydah S , Tassetto M , Martin JN , Wigginton KR . mSphere 2023 8 (4) e0013223 Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) emerged during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as a scalable and broadly applicable method for community-level monitoring of infectious disease burden. The lack of high-resolution fecal shedding data for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) limits our ability to link WBE measurements to disease burden. In this study, we present longitudinal, quantitative fecal shedding data for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, as well as for the commonly used fecal indicators pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA and crAss-like phage (crAssphage) DNA. The shedding trajectories from 48 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals suggest a highly individualized, dynamic course of SARS-CoV-2 RNA fecal shedding. Of the individuals that provided at least three stool samples spanning more than 14 days, 77% had one or more samples that tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. We detected PMMoV RNA in at least one sample from all individuals and in 96% (352/367) of samples overall. CrAssphage DNA was detected in at least one sample from 80% (38/48) of individuals and was detected in 48% (179/371) of all samples. The geometric mean concentrations of PMMoV and crAssphage in stool across all individuals were 8.7 × 10(4) and 1.4 × 10(4) gene copies/milligram-dry weight, respectively, and crAssphage shedding was more consistent for individuals than PMMoV shedding. These results provide us with a missing link needed to connect laboratory WBE results with mechanistic models, and this will aid in more accurate estimates of COVID-19 burden in sewersheds. Additionally, the PMMoV and crAssphage data are critical for evaluating their utility as fecal strength normalizing measures and for source-tracking applications. IMPORTANCE This research represents a critical step in the advancement of wastewater monitoring for public health. To date, mechanistic materials balance modeling of wastewater-based epidemiology has relied on SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding estimates from small-scale clinical reports or meta-analyses of research using a wide range of analytical methodologies. Additionally, previous SARS-CoV-2 fecal shedding data have not contained sufficient methodological information for building accurate materials balance models. Like SARS-CoV-2, fecal shedding of PMMoV and crAssphage has been understudied to date. The data presented here provide externally valid and longitudinal fecal shedding data for SARS-CoV-2, PMMoV, and crAssphage which can be directly applied to WBE models and ultimately increase the utility of WBE. |
Assisted reproductive technology cycles involving male factor infertility in the United States, 20172018: data from the National Assisted Reproductive Technology Surveillance System
Jewett A , Warner L , Kawwass JF , Mehta A , Eisenberg ML , Nangia AK , Dupree JM , Honig S , Hotaling JM , Kissin DM . F S Rep 2022 3 (2) 124-130 Objective: To describe the prevalence and treatment characteristics of assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycles involving specific male factor infertility diagnoses in the United States. Design: Cross-sectional analysis of ART cycles in the National ART Surveillance System (NASS). Setting: Clinics that reported patient ART cycles performed in 2017 and 2018. Patient(s): Patients who visited an ART clinic and the cycles were reported in the NASS. The ART cycles included all autologous and donor cycles that used fresh or frozen embryos. Intervention(s): Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Analyses used new, detailed reporting of male factor infertility subcategories, treatment characteristics, and male partner demographics available in the NASS. Result(s): Among 399,573 cycles started with intent to transfer an embryo, 30.4% (n = 121,287) included a male factor infertility diagnosis as a reason for using ART. Of these, male factor only was reported in 16.5% of cycles, and both male and female factors were reported in 13.9% of cycles; 21.8% of male factor cycles had >1 male factor. Abnormal sperm parameters were the most commonly reported diagnoses (79.7%), followed by medical condition (5.3%) and genetic or chromosomal abnormalities (1.0%). Males aged 40 years comprised 59.6% of cycles with male factor infertility. Intracytoplasmic sperm injection was the primary method of fertilization (81.7%). Preimplantation genetic testing was used in 26.8%, and single embryo transfer was used in 66.8% of cycles with male factor infertility diagnosis. Conclusion(s): Male factor infertility is a substantial contributor to infertility treatments in the United States. Continued assessment of the prevalence and characteristics of ART cycles with male factor infertility may inform treatment options and improve ART outcomes. Future studies are necessary to further evaluate male factor infertility. 2022 |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
The Wildland Firefighter Exposure and Health Effect (WFFEHE) Study: Rationale, design, and methods of a repeated-measures study
Navarro KM , Butler CR , Fent K , Toennis C , Sammons D , Ramirez-Cardenas A , Clark KA , Byrne DC , Graydon PS , Hale CR , Wilkinson AF , Smith DL , Alexander-Scott MC , Pinkerton LE , Eisenberg J , Domitrovich JW . Ann Work Expo Health 2021 66 (6) 714-727 The wildland firefighter exposure and health effect (WFFEHE) study was a 2-year repeated-measures study to investigate occupational exposures and acute and subacute health effects among wildland firefighters. This manuscript describes the study rationale, design, methods, limitations, challenges, and lessons learned. The WFFEHE cohort included fire personnel ages 18-57 from six federal wildland firefighting crews in Colorado and Idaho during the 2018 and 2019 fire seasons. All wildland firefighters employed by the recruited crews were invited to participate in the study at preseason and postseason study intervals. In 2019, one of the crews also participated in a 3-day midseason study interval where workplace exposures and pre/postshift measurements were collected while at a wildland fire incident. Study components assessed cardiovascular health, pulmonary function and inflammation, kidney function, workplace exposures, and noise-induced hearing loss. Measurements included self-reported risk factors and symptoms collected through questionnaires; serum and urine biomarkers of exposure, effect, and inflammation; pulmonary function; platelet function and arterial stiffness; and audiometric testing. Throughout the study, 154 wildland firefighters participated in at least one study interval, while 144 participated in two or more study interval. This study was completed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health through a collaborative effort with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Department of the Interior National Park Service, and Skidmore College. Conducting research in the wildfire environment came with many challenges including collecting study data with study participants with changing work schedules and conducting study protocols safely and operating laboratory equipment in remote field locations. Forthcoming WFFEHE study results will contribute to the scientific evidence regarding occupational risk factors and exposures that can impact wildland firefighter health over a season and across two wildland fire seasons. This research is anticipated to lead to the development of preventive measures and policies aimed at reducing risk for wildland firefighters and aid in identifying future research needs for the wildland fire community. |
A Review of Adverse Events from the Use of Diphtheria Antitoxin (DAT) in the United States, 2004-2019
Bampoe VD , Boswell HC , Yu YC , Acosta AM . Clin Infect Dis 2021 74 (11) 2082-2083 We read with interest the analysis by Eisenberg and colleagues [1] on diphtheria antitoxin (DAT) use during the diphtheria outbreak in Bangladesh, especially with regard to product safety. Eisenberg et al found that administration of a DAT product manufactured by Premium Serum and Vaccines Pvt Ltd (India) was associated with adverse events (AEs) in 170 of 790 (24%) recipients. However, most events were mild, and anaphylaxis occurred in only 3% [1]. Here we provide further evidence on the safety of DAT, administered in a high-resource, non-outbreak setting in the United States. |
Census tract socioeconomic indicators and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates-COVID-NET surveillance areas in 14 states, March 1-April 30, 2020.
Wortham JM , Meador SA , Hadler JL , Yousey-Hindes K , See I , Whitaker M , O'Halloran A , Milucky J , Chai SJ , Reingold A , Alden NB , Kawasaki B , Anderson EJ , Openo KP , Weigel A , Monroe ML , Ryan PA , Kim S , Reeg L , Lynfield R , McMahon M , Sosin DM , Eisenberg N , Rowe A , Barney G , Bennett NM , Bushey S , Billing LM , Shiltz J , Sutton M , West N , Talbot HK , Schaffner W , McCaffrey K , Spencer M , Kambhampati AK , Anglin O , Piasecki AM , Holstein R , Hall AJ , Fry AM , Garg S , Kim L . PLoS One 2021 16 (9) e0257622 OBJECTIVES: Some studies suggested more COVID-19-associated hospitalizations among racial and ethnic minorities. To inform public health practice, the COVID-19-associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) quantified associations between race/ethnicity, census tract socioeconomic indicators, and COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates. METHODS: Using data from COVID-NET population-based surveillance reported during March 1-April 30, 2020 along with socioeconomic and denominator data from the US Census Bureau, we calculated COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates by racial/ethnic and census tract-level socioeconomic strata. RESULTS: Among 16,000 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, 34.8% occurred among non-Hispanic White (White) persons, 36.3% among non-Hispanic Black (Black) persons, and 18.2% among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. Age-adjusted COVID-19-associated hospitalization rate were 151.6 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 147.1-156.1) in census tracts with >15.2%-83.2% of persons living below the federal poverty level (high-poverty census tracts) and 75.5 (95% CI: 72.9-78.1) in census tracts with 0%-4.9% of persons living below the federal poverty level (low-poverty census tracts). Among White, Black, and Hispanic persons living in high-poverty census tracts, age-adjusted hospitalization rates were 120.3 (95% CI: 112.3-128.2), 252.2 (95% CI: 241.4-263.0), and 341.1 (95% CI: 317.3-365.0), respectively, compared with 58.2 (95% CI: 55.4-61.1), 304.0 (95%: 282.4-325.6), and 540.3 (95% CI: 477.0-603.6), respectively, in low-poverty census tracts. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates were highest in high-poverty census tracts, but rates among Black and Hispanic persons were high regardless of poverty level. Public health practitioners must ensure mitigation measures and vaccination campaigns address needs of racial/ethnic minority groups and people living in high-poverty census tracts. |
Clinical Trends Among U.S. Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19, March to December 2020 : A Cross-Sectional Study.
Garg S , Patel K , Pham H , Whitaker M , O'Halloran A , Milucky J , Anglin O , Kirley PD , Reingold A , Kawasaki B , Herlihy R , Yousey-Hindes K , Maslar A , Anderson EJ , Openo KP , Weigel A , Teno K , Ryan PA , Monroe ML , Reeg L , Kim S , Como-Sabetti K , Bye E , Shrum Davis S , Eisenberg N , Muse A , Barney G , Bennett NM , Felsen CB , Billing L , Shiltz J , Sutton M , Abdullah N , Talbot HK , Schaffner W , Hill M , Chatelain R , Wortham J , Taylor C , Hall A , Fry AM , Kim L , Havers FP . Ann Intern Med 2021 174 (10) 1409-1419 BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused substantial morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To describe monthly clinical trends among adults hospitalized with COVID-19. DESIGN: Pooled cross-sectional study. SETTING: 99 counties in 14 states participating in the Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET). PATIENTS: U.S. adults (aged ≥18 years) hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during 1 March to 31 December 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Monthly hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and in-hospital death rates per 100 000 persons in the population; monthly trends in weighted percentages of interventions, including ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor use, among an age- and site-stratified random sample of hospitalized case patients. RESULTS: Among 116 743 hospitalized adults with COVID-19, the median age was 62 years, 50.7% were male, and 40.8% were non-Hispanic White. Monthly rates of hospitalization (105.3 per 100 000 persons), ICU admission (20.2 per 100 000 persons), and death (11.7 per 100 000 persons) peaked during December 2020. Rates of all 3 outcomes were highest among adults aged 65 years or older, males, and Hispanic or non-Hispanic Black persons. Among 18 508 sampled hospitalized adults, use of remdesivir and systemic corticosteroids increased from 1.7% and 18.9%, respectively, in March to 53.8% and 74.2%, respectively, in December. Frequency of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and vasopressor use decreased from March (37.8%, 27.8%, and 22.7%, respectively) to December (20.5%, 12.3%, and 12.8%, respectively); use of noninvasive respiratory support increased from March to December. LIMITATION: COVID-NET covers approximately 10% of the U.S. population; findings may not be generalizable to the entire country. CONCLUSION: Rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalization, ICU admission, and death were highest in December 2020, corresponding with the third peak of the U.S. pandemic. The frequency of intensive interventions for management of hospitalized patients decreased over time. These data provide a longitudinal assessment of clinical trends among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 before widespread implementation of COVID-19 vaccines. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. |
Cost-effectiveness of pediatric norovirus vaccination in daycare settings
Steimle LN , Havumaki J , Eisenberg MC , Eisenberg JNS , Prosser LA , Pike J , Ortega-Sanchez IR , Mattison CP , Hall AJ , Steele MK , Lopman BA , Hutton DW . Vaccine 2021 39 (15) 2133-2145 OBJECTIVE: Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the United States and outbreaks frequently occur in daycare settings. Results of norovirus vaccine trials have been promising, however there are open questions as to whether vaccination of daycare children would be cost-effective. We investigated the incremental cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical norovirus vaccination for children in daycare settings compared to no vaccination. METHODS: We conducted a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis using a disease transmission model of children attending daycare. Vaccination with a 90% coverage rate in addition to the observed standard of care (exclusion of symptomatic children from daycare) was compared to the observed standard of care. The main outcomes measures were infections and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Cost-effectiveness was analyzed from a societal perspective, including medical costs to children as well as productivity losses of parents, over a two-year time horizon. Data sources included outbreak surveillance data and published literature. RESULTS: A 50% efficacious norovirus vaccine averts 571.83 norovirus cases and 0.003 norovirus-related deaths per 10,000 children compared to the observed standard of care. A $200 norovirus vaccine that is 50% efficacious has a net cost increase of $178.10 per child and 0.025 more QALYs, resulting in an ICER of $7,028/QALY. Based on the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, we estimated that a $200 vaccination with 50% efficacy was 94.0% likely to be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of $100,000/QALY threshold and 95.3% likely at a $150,000/QALY threshold. CONCLUSION: Due to the large disease burden associated with norovirus, it is likely that vaccinating children in daycares could be cost-effective, even with modest vaccine efficacy and a high per-child cost of vaccination. Norovirus vaccination of children in daycare has a cost-effectiveness ratio similar to other commonly recommended childhood vaccines. |
Immunologic and Epidemiologic Drivers of Norovirus Transmission in Daycare and School Outbreaks
Havumaki J , Eisenberg JNS , Mattison CP , Lopman BA , Ortega-Sanchez IR , Hall AJ , Hutton DW , Eisenberg MC . Epidemiology 2021 32 (3) 351-359 BACKGROUND: Norovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms. METHODS: We explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted 'immunity'), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data. RESULTS: Including immunity in the model led to attack rates that were consistent with the data. However, immunity alone resulted in the majority of outbreak durations being relatively short. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. More studies on how best to design interventions which leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion may improve venue-level control measures. |
Measuring environmental exposure to enteric pathogens in low-income settings: Review and recommendations of an interdisciplinary working group
Goddard FGB , Ban R , Barr DB , Brown J , Cannon J , Colford JM Jr , Eisenberg JNS , Ercumen A , Petach H , Freeman MC , Levy K , Luby SP , Moe C , Pickering AJ , Sarnat JA , Stewart J , Thomas E , Taniuchi M , Clasen T . Environ Sci Technol 2020 54 (19) 11673-11691 Infections with enteric pathogens impose a heavy disease burden, especially among young children in low-income countries. Recent findings from randomized controlled trials of water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions have raised questions about current methods for assessing environmental exposure to enteric pathogens. Approaches for estimating sources and doses of exposure suffer from a number of shortcomings, including reliance on imperfect indicators of fecal contamination instead of actual pathogens and estimating exposure indirectly from imprecise measurements of pathogens in the environment and human interaction therewith. These shortcomings limit the potential for effective surveillance of exposures, identification of important sources and modes of transmission, and evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions. In this review, we summarize current and emerging approaches used to characterize enteric pathogen hazards in different environmental media as well as human interaction with those media (external measures of exposure), and review methods that measure human infection with enteric pathogens as a proxy for past exposure (internal measures of exposure). We draw from lessons learned in other areas of environmental health to highlight how external and internal measures of exposure can be used to more comprehensively assess exposure. We conclude by recommending strategies for advancing enteric pathogen exposure assessments. |
Transmission of viral pathogens in a social network of university students: the eX-FLU study.
Zivich PN , Eisenberg MC , Monto AS , Uzicanin A , Baric RS , Sheahan TP , Rainey JJ , Gao H , Aiello AE . Epidemiol Infect 2020 148 1-19 Previous research on respiratory infection transmission among university students has primarily focused on influenza. In this study, we explore potential transmission events for multiple respiratory pathogens in a social contact network of university students. University students residing in on-campus housing (n = 590) were followed for the development of influenza-like illness for 10-weeks during the 2012-13 influenza season. A contact network was built using weekly self-reported contacts, class schedules, and housing information. We considered a transmission event to have occurred if students were positive for the same pathogen and had a network connection within a 14-day period. Transmitters were individuals who had onset date prior to their infected social contact. Throat and nasal samples were analysed for multiple viruses by RT-PCR. Five viruses were involved in 18 transmission events (influenza A, parainfluenza virus 3, rhinovirus, coronavirus NL63, respiratory syncytial virus). Transmitters had higher numbers of co-infections (67%). Identified transmission events had contacts reported in small classes (33%), dormitory common areas (22%) and dormitory rooms (17%). These results suggest that targeting person-to-person interactions, through measures such as isolation and quarantine, could reduce transmission of respiratory infections on campus. |
Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp: using a transmission model in public health practice
Havumaki J , Meza R , Phares CR , Date K , Eisenberg MC . BMC Infect Dis 2019 19 (1) 1075 BACKGROUND: Cholera is a major public health concern in displaced-person camps, which often contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest and longest-standing refugee camp in Thailand, located along the Thai-Burmese border, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign and planning for subsequent campaigns, we developed a mathematical model of cholera in Maela. METHODS: We formulated a Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered-based transmission model and estimated parameters using incidence data from 2010. We next evaluated the reduction in cases conferred by several immunization strategies, varying timing, effectiveness, and resources (i.e., vaccine availability). After the vaccine campaign, we generated case forecasts for the next year, to inform on-the-ground decision-making regarding whether a booster campaign was needed. RESULTS: We found that preexposure vaccination can substantially reduce the risk of cholera even when <50% of the population is given the full two-dose series. Additionally, the preferred number of doses per person should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and vaccine availability. For reactive vaccination, a trade-off between timing and effectiveness was revealed, indicating that it may be beneficial to give one dose to more people rather than two doses to fewer people, given that a two-dose schedule would incur a delay in administration of the second dose. Forecasting using realistic coverage levels predicted that there was no need for a booster campaign in 2014 (consistent with our predictions, there was not a cholera epidemic in 2014). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that vaccination in conjunction with ongoing water sanitation and hygiene efforts provides an effective strategy for controlling cholera outbreaks in refugee camps. Effective preexposure vaccination depends on timing and effectiveness. If a camp is facing an outbreak, delayed distribution of vaccines can substantially alter the effectiveness of reactive vaccination, suggesting that quick distribution of vaccines may be more important than ensuring every individual receives both vaccine doses. Overall, this analysis illustrates how mathematical models can be applied in public health practice, to assist in evaluating alternative intervention strategies and inform decision-making. |
Fomite-mediated transmission as a sufficient pathway: a comparative analysis across three viral pathogens
Kraay ANM , Hayashi MAL , Hernandez-Ceron N , Spicknall IH , Eisenberg MC , Meza R , Eisenberg JNS . BMC Infect Dis 2018 18 (1) 540 BACKGROUND: Fomite mediated transmission can be an important pathway causing significant disease transmission in number of settings such as schools, daycare centers, and long-term care facilities. The importance of these pathways relative to other transmission pathways such as direct person-person or airborne will depend on the characteristics of the particular pathogen and the venue in which transmission occurs. Here we analyze fomite mediated transmission through a comparative analysis across multiple pathogens and venues. METHODS: We developed and analyzed a compartmental model that explicitly accounts for fomite transmission by including pathogen transfer between hands and surfaces. We consider two sub-types of fomite-mediated transmission: direct fomite (e.g., shedding onto fomites) and hand-fomite (e.g., shedding onto hands and then contacting fomites). We use this model to examine three pathogens with distinct environmental characteristics (influenza, rhinovirus, and norovirus) in four venue types. To parameterize the model for each pathogen we conducted a thorough literature search. RESULTS: Based on parameter estimates from the literature the reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) for the fomite route for rhinovirus and norovirus is greater than 1 in nearly all venues considered, suggesting that this route can sustain transmission. For influenza, on the other hand, [Formula: see text] for the fomite route is smaller suggesting many conditions in which the pathway may not sustain transmission. Additionally, the direct fomite route is more relevant than the hand-fomite route for influenza and rhinovirus, compared to norovirus. The relative importance of the hand-fomite vs. direct fomite route for norovirus is strongly dependent on the fraction of pathogens initially shed to hands. Sensitivity analysis stresses the need for accurate measurements of environmental inactivation rates, transfer efficiencies, and pathogen shedding. CONCLUSIONS: Fomite-mediated transmission is an important pathway for the three pathogens examined. The effectiveness of environmental interventions differs significantly both by pathogen and venue. While fomite-based interventions may be able to lower [Formula: see text] for fomites below 1 and interrupt transmission, rhinovirus and norovirus are so infectious ([Formula: see text]) that single environmental interventions are unlikely to interrupt fomite transmission for these pathogens. |
Use of secondary contraception following vasectomy: insights from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System, 2007-2011
Patel DP , Williams L , Warner L , O'Neil ME , Aston K , Carrell DT , Grigorescu V , Jamieson DJ , Gannon JR , Eisenberg ML , Walsh TJ , Hotaling JM . Transl Androl Urol 2018 7 S264-s270 Background: To assess postpartum use of secondary contraception with vasectomy within Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS). Methods: Secondary contraception and type of method used were assessed among married women reporting partner vasectomy 4 months after a recent live birth in female residents of 15 US states and New York City who participated in the 2007-2011 PRAMS. Results: Between 2007 and 2011, 1,004 married women who had a recent live birth participating in PRAMS reported they and their partners relied on vasectomy for postpartum contraception. Among these couples, 57.8% reported not using additional forms of contraception postpartum. Of those reporting additional contraception, condoms were most commonly used (50.0%), followed by oral contraceptive pills (26.5%), and withdrawal (9.5%). Multivariable modeling showed that use of secondary contraception was twice as high among women reporting a second birth versus women reporting a fourth or higher birth [adjusted prevalence odds ratio (POR) =2.0 (1.1-3.2)]. No other sociodemographic characteristics (maternal age, maternal race, parental education, household income) were significantly associated with use of secondary contraception with vasectomy. Conclusions: Most couples within PRAMS reporting partner vasectomy as postpartum contraception did not use secondary contraception in the months immediately after vasectomy, and, of those who did, most relied on less effective methods. Clinicians need to better understand reasons for limited use of secondary contraception with vasectomy to improve counseling strategies for reducing unintended pregnancy. |
Evaluation of heat stress and heat strain among employees working outdoors in an extremely hot environment
Methner M , Eisenberg J . J Occup Environ Hyg 2018 15 (6) 1-20 A heat stress evaluation was conducted among employees engaged in strenuous work in an extremely hot outdoor environment. Environmental conditions that contribute to heat stress along with various physiological indicators of heat strain were monitored on a task-basis for nine employees daily across 4 workdays. Employees performed moderate to heavy tasks in elevated environmental conditions for longer periods of time than recommended by various heat stress exposure limits. Seven of nine employees showed evidence of excessive heat strain according to criteria yet all employees were able to self-regulate task duration and intensity to avoid heat-related illness. |
CDC Grand Rounds: National Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Registry Impact, Challenges, and Future Directions.
Mehta P , Horton DK , Kasarskis EJ , Tessaro E , Eisenberg MS , Laird S , Iskander J . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2017 66 (50) 1379-1382 Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease, is a rapidly progressive fatal neurologic disease. Currently, there is no cure for ALS and the available treatments only extend life by an average of a few months. The majority of ALS patients die within 2-5 years of diagnosis, though survival time varies depending on disease progression. For approximately 10% of patients, ALS is familial, meaning it and has a genetic component; the remaining 90% have sporadic ALS, where etiology is unknown, but might be linked to environmental factors such as chemical exposures (e.g., heavy metals, pesticides) and occupational history. |
Trends in Testosterone Replacement Therapy Use from 2003 to 2013 among Reproductive-Age Men in the United States
Rao PK , Boulet SL , Mehta A , Hotaling J , Eisenberg ML , Honig SC , Warner L , Kissin DM , Nangia AK , Ross LS . J Urol 2016 197 (4) 1121-1126 PURPOSE: Although testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) use in the US has increased dramatically over the past decade, trends in TRT use among reproductive-aged men have not been investigated. We assessed changes in TRT use and practice patterns among 18-45-year-old US men from 2003-2013, and compared them to older men. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective, cross-sectional analysis of men ages 18-45 and 56-64 enrolled in the Truven Health MarketScan Commercial Claims Databases throughout each given calendar year from 2003-2013 (n=5,094,868 in 2013). Trends in the yearly rates of TRT use were calculated using Poisson regression. Among TRT users, Cochran-Armitage tests were used to assess temporal trends in age, formulation type, and semen analysis and serum testosterone level testing during the 12 months preceding documented use of TRT. RESULTS: Between 2003 and 2013, there was a 4-fold increase in the rate of testosterone use among 18-45-year-old men from 29.2 per 10,000 person-years to 118.1 per 10,000 person-years (p<.0001). Among TRT users, topical gel formulations were initially used most. Injection use then doubled between 2009 (23.5%) and 2012 (46.2%), and surpassed topical gel use in 2013. Men 56-64 saw a statistically significant 3-fold increase in TRT use (p<.0001), which was significantly smaller than the 4-fold increase seen in younger men (p<.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In 2003-2013, TRT use increased 4-fold in men 18-45, compared to 3-fold in older men. This younger age group should be a focus for future studies due to effects on fertility and unknown long-term sequelae. |
Cross-neutralizing and protective human antibody specificities to poxvirus infections
Gilchuk I , Gilchuk P , Sapparapu G , Lampley R , Singh V , Kose N , Blum DL , Hughes LJ , Satheshkumar PS , Townsend MB , Kondas AV , Reed Z , Weiner Z , Olson VA , Hammarlund E , Raue HP , Slifka MK , Slaughter JC , Graham BS , Edwards KM , Eisenberg RJ , Cohen GH , Joyce S , Crowe JE Jr . Cell 2016 167 (3) 684-694.e9 Monkeypox (MPXV) and cowpox (CPXV) are emerging agents that cause severe human infections on an intermittent basis, and variola virus (VARV) has potential for use as an agent of bioterror. Vaccinia immune globulin (VIG) has been used therapeutically to treat severe orthopoxvirus infections but is in short supply. We generated a large panel of orthopoxvirus-specific human monoclonal antibodies (Abs) from immune subjects to investigate the molecular basis of broadly neutralizing antibody responses for diverse orthopoxviruses. Detailed analysis revealed the principal neutralizing antibody specificities that are cross-reactive for VACV, CPXV, MPXV, and VARV and that are determinants of protection in murine challenge models. Optimal protection following respiratory or systemic infection required a mixture of Abs that targeted several membrane proteins, including proteins on enveloped and mature virion forms of virus. This work reveals orthopoxvirus targets for human Abs that mediate cross-protective immunity and identifies new candidate Ab therapeutic mixtures to replace VIG. |
Design and methods of a social network isolation study for reducing respiratory infection transmission: The eX-FLU cluster randomized trial
Aiello AE , Simanek AM , Eisenberg MC , Walsh AR , Davis B , Volz E , Cheng C , Rainey JJ , Uzicanin A , Gao H , Osgood N , Knowles D , Stanley K , Tarter K , Monto AS . Epidemics 2016 15 38-55 BACKGROUND: Social networks are increasingly recognized as important points of intervention, yet relatively few intervention studies of respiratory infection transmission have utilized a network design. Here we describe the design, methods, and social network structure of a randomized intervention for isolating respiratory infection cases in a university setting over a 10-week period. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 590 students in six residence halls enrolled in the eX-FLU study during a chain-referral recruitment process from September 2012-January 2013. Of these, 262 joined as "seed" participants, who nominated their social contacts to join the study, of which 328 "nominees" enrolled. Participants were cluster-randomized by 117 residence halls. Participants were asked to respond to weekly surveys on health behaviors, social interactions, and influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms. Participants were randomized to either a 3-Day dorm room isolation intervention or a control group (no isolation) upon illness onset. ILI cases reported on their isolation behavior during illness and provided throat and nasal swab specimens at onset, day-three, and day-six of illness. A subsample of individuals (= 103) participated in a sub-study using a novel smartphone application, iEpi, which collected sensor and contextually-dependent survey data on social interactions. Within the social network, participants were significantly positively assortative by intervention group, enrollment type, residence hall, iEpi participation, age, gender, race, and alcohol use (all P < 0.002). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We identified a feasible study design for testing the impact of isolation from social networks in a university setting. These data provide an unparalleled opportunity to address questions about isolation and infection transmission, as well as insights into social networks and behaviors among college-aged students. Several important lessons were learned over the course of this project, including feasible isolation durations, the need for extensive organizational efforts, as well as the need for specialized programmers and server space for managing survey and smartphone data. |
Development of a community health inclusion index: an evaluation tool for improving inclusion of people with disabilities in community health initiatives
Eisenberg Y , Rimmer JH , Mehta T , Fox MH . BMC Public Health 2015 15 (1) 1050 BACKGROUND: Community health initiatives often do not provide enough supports for people with disabilities to fully participate in healthy, active living opportunities. The purpose of this study was to design an instrument that focused on integrating disability-related items into a multi-level survey tool that assessed healthy, active living initiatives. METHODS: The development and testing of the Community Health Inclusion Index (CHII) involved four components: (a) literature review of studies that examined barriers and facilitators to healthy, active living; (b) focus groups with persons with disabilities and professionals living in geographically diverse settings; (c) expert panel to establish a final set of critical items; and (d) field testing the CHII in 164 sites across 15 communities in 5 states to assess the instrument's reliability. RESULTS: Results from initial analysis of these data indicated that the CHII has good reliability. Depending on the subscale, Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.700 to 0.965. The CHII's inter-rater agreement showed that 14 of the 15 venues for physical activity or healthy eating throughout a community had strong agreement (0.81 - 1.00), while one venue had substantial agreement (0.61 - 0.80). CONCLUSION: The CHII is the first instrument to operationalize community health inclusion into a comprehensive assessment tool that can be used by public health professionals and community coalitions to examine the critical supports needed for improving healthy, active living among people with disabilities. |
A 10-year review of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Heads Up initiatives: bringing concussion awareness to the forefront
Sarmiento K , Hoffman R , Dmitrovsky Z , Lee R . J Safety Res 2014 50 143-7 Children and adolescents are at increased risk for concussions, a type of mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) caused by a bump, blow, or jolt to the head or body that can change the way the brain normally works. While most children and adolescents no longer experience symptoms within two weeks of the injury, some—especially those who have a history of concussions—may have symptoms that last for months or even longer (Eisenberg, Andrea, Meehan, & Mannix, 2013). Concussions need to be addressed correctly to help reduce the risk for short- or long-term health problems that can affect a child’s or adolescent’s thinking, learning, behavior, and/or emotions (Brosseau-Lachaine, Gagnon, Forget, & Faubert, 2008; McClincy, Lovell, Pardini, Collins, & Spore, 2006; Moser, Schatz, & Jordan, 2005; Schatz, Moser, Covassin, & Karpf, 2011). | To help address this public health concern, the Children’s Health Act of 2000 (H.R. 4365) (Library of Congress, 1999–2000) charged the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Injury Prevention and Control to implement a public information campaign to broaden public awareness of the health consequences of TBI. In response, CDC developed and launched the Heads Up concussion education campaign. Over the last 10 years, CDC’s Heads Up campaign has grown into a cohesive suite of educational initiatives that share a common goal: to help protect children and adolescents from concussions and other serious brain injuries by raising awareness, enhancing knowledge, and informing action to improve prevention, recognition, and response to concussions. Each CDC Heads Up initiative fulfills these goals by (1) translating the latest concussion science into educational products tailored specifically for the target audiences, and (2) working with partner organizations to disseminate and integrate concussion educational materials and messages into their existing systems and programs. This report describes the process CDC employed to develop and carry out the Heads Up campaign. |
Systemic exposure to PAHs and benzene in firefighters suppressing controlled structure fires
Fent KW , Eisenberg J , Snawder J , Sammons D , Pleil JD , Stiegel MA , Mueller C , Horn GP , Dalton J . Ann Occup Hyg 2014 58 (7) 830-45 Turnout gear provides protection against dermal exposure to contaminants during firefighting; however, the level of protection is unknown. We explored the dermal contribution to the systemic dose of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and other aromatic hydrocarbons in firefighters during suppression and overhaul of controlled structure burns. The study was organized into two rounds, three controlled burns per round, and five firefighters per burn. The firefighters wore new or laundered turnout gear tested before each burn to ensure lack of PAH contamination. To ensure that any increase in systemic PAH levels after the burn was the result of dermal rather than inhalation exposure, the firefighters did not remove their self-contained breathing apparatus until overhaul was completed and they were >30 m upwind from the burn structure. Specimens were collected before and at intervals after the burn for biomarker analysis. Urine was analyzed for phenanthrene equivalents using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and a benzene metabolite (s-phenylmercapturic acid) using liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry; both were adjusted by creatinine. Exhaled breath collected on thermal desorption tubes was analyzed for PAHs and other aromatic hydrocarbons using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. We collected personal air samples during the burn and skin wipe samples (corn oil medium) on several body sites before and after the burn. The air and wipe samples were analyzed for PAHs using a liquid chromatography with photodiode array detection. We explored possible changes in external exposures or biomarkers over time and the relationships between these variables using non-parametric sign tests and Spearman tests, respectively. We found significantly elevated (P < 0.05) post-exposure breath concentrations of benzene compared with pre-exposure concentrations for both rounds. We also found significantly elevated post-exposure levels of PAHs on the neck compared with pre-exposure levels for round 1. We found statistically significant positive correlations between external exposures (i.e. personal air concentrations of PAHs) and biomarkers (i.e. change in urinary PAH metabolite levels in round 1 and change in breath concentrations of benzene in round 2). The results suggest that firefighters wearing full protective ensembles absorbed combustion products into their bodies. The PAHs most likely entered firefighters' bodies through their skin, with the neck being the primary site of exposure and absorption due to the lower level of dermal protection afforded by hoods. Aromatic hydrocarbons could have been absorbed dermally during firefighting or inhaled during the doffing of gear that was off-gassing contaminants. |
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